CBCRE 2022 Q1 Market Report

    CBCRE 2022 Q1 Market Report

    Apr 26, 2022

    Trends and Opportunities in Q1 2022

    Similar to previous decades when Stowe saw considerable growth, we are seeing that happen today, through investment from developers, new businesses, and increased interest in our area from younger generations. Stowe and the surrounding area, like the whole of Vermont and the majority of the country, started 2022 with robust growth but also reduced inventory. Even though there was a lower inventory, we were still seeing record increases in the average and median listing and selling prices. 

    While buyers’ desire for new inventory remains high we’re seeing more are willing to be patient as we have progressed into another year of growth. Today’s buyers are equipped with more access to information than ever before, but understanding how to leverage that information requires local expertise. One factor that emerged within the final month of Q1 was the rise in interest rates. Making sure your team is equipped with proper communication is paramount to a successful transaction.

    Across the region, there was a reduction in inventory, in Stowe and Lamoille North there was a 9% dip in new listings compared to last year. In Stowe, it was more pronounced in that there was a 33% drop in new listings. Waterbury there was no change year over year.

    Taking a cue from 2021, listings in Stowe increased in average and median listing prices, by a significant amount, 35% and 61% respectively. Selling prices rose in both categories, with the average sales price increasing by 37% and the median increasing by 61%. Very few homes traded below $1M in Stowe in Q1, with an average sales price of $1.932M. Multiple offers were seen at the majority of properties during this time, with homes selling 2.55% above listing price on average. Given the high competition for homes, there was a significant reduction in average and median days on market, with the average decreasing by 53% and the median dropping by 68%.

    The luxury market in Stowe for Q1 2022 was the dominant driver of the market with 11 of the 15 sales trading above $1M. The number of sales year-over-year was almost equal to last year with 11 this year, compared to 12 in 2021. The average days on market was 44, which was higher due to two larger more dated homes being on the market for well over 100 days but are balanced out by two off-market sales which show zero days on market.  If you remove these four the average days on market were less than a week. Showing the importance of being prepared to move quickly even at higher price points.

    The year-over-year averages for the luxury market moved up significantly in Q1 2022, with the average selling price being $2.4M in 2022 compared to $1.9M in 2021 and the median being $1.850M compared to $1.257M in 2021. We are seeing some record price per square foot figures for our area, with some renovated homes trading above $1,000 a square foot.

    While the overall market in Stowe has increased in value, monitoring the luxury market as we move into Q2 and beyond will be paramount in projecting proper pricing for new listings as well as analyzing when and how to make the right offer.

    The condo market was reflective of the single-family home market with the number of sales and new inventory dipping, and pricing moving upwards. There were 13 sales in Q1 of 2022, compared to 24 in Q1 of 2021. What is particularly interesting is that of the 13 condos sold, 8 were located in Stowe Mt. Lodge. The majority of these were studio units that are finally gaining in value after spending the majority of the last decade declining in value. In addition, there were record-setting sales in established condo associations like Tollhouse and Topnotch. The average and median prices increased in Q1 by 27% and 58%, respectively. 

    As the saying goes, they aren’t making any more land. Q1 2022 saw fewer transactions compared to a year ago, with only two parcels trading compared to 10 in Q1 2021. What is most interesting about this data point is that in 2021 many of the parcels that were traded had been on the market for quite some time. When those parcels sold it reduced the number of options available for 2022. A year ago land offered flexibility in relation to the asking price, whereas in 2022 that flexibility hasn’t readily been available. Winter is typically a slower time for land sales, but as of this report, there were 5 parcels in contract.

    View the Stowe numbers in detail here.

    As we expand into all of Lamoille County, an area comprising 9 towns, in addition to Stowe, we see a more tempered trend that is closely tied to national trends. There was a decrease in overall sales and listings, but by just over 8%, which is more of a historic trend. The average and median prices increases were also more moderate compared to Q1 2021, they increased by 9.35% and 3.45%, respectively. This increase for Lamoille North has meant that the average selling price broke $400K, an increase of almost $50K year-over-year, with homes selling at 99% of their asking price.

    Land sales mirrored that of Stowe, with a 50% reduction in overall sales, but as with all other segments of the market, the average and median prices saw significant gains. The average price increased by over $84K to a high of $189K. The median price increased by $70K, a 50% increase year-over-year to $140K. There are 49 available parcels as of this report; 20 of which are located in Morristown. The availability of contractors and materials, coupled with the time to construct could add some downward pressure as we move into the balance of 2022, but the overall lack of options for single-family homes will keep land as a viable option for many buyers.

    View the Lamoille County numbers in detail here. *

    *Figures reflected in the report (linked above) show all of Lamoille County including Stowe. The above narrative excludes the Stowe data.

    Waterbury was steady year-over-year with the same number of homes trading in Q1 2022 as Q1 2021, 4 total sales.  There was a slight increase in the average sales price of 7%, this was driven by 3 of the 4 sales trading above the asking price.  One out of the 4 sales traded below asking and was on the market longer, causing the overall days on market to increase by 14%. There are 4 active listings available in Waterbury, ranging from $399K to $2.2M. Based on properties in contract at the end of Q1 2022, 6 total pending, the second quarter of 2022 should see an increase in sales volume. Waterbury remains a very attractive option for buyers given its location, those considering selling in 2022 should feel confident in their market as we work through Q2 and Q3.

    Land in Waterbury did see a decrease in sales, with 3 parcels sold in Q1 of 2022, compared to 5 in 2021. Although there was a decrease, the average and median sales prices did jump, given all 3 properties were above $350K with one parcel trading at $795K. There’s only one parcel available on the market, but that is not uncommon for this time of year. 

    Since Waterbury has such a small sample size in single-family and land sales, we will continue to monitor the market to seek further indicators of where 2022 is headed, but as we move into Q2, those with homes and parcels to sell should seriously consider bringing them to market in 2022.

    View the Waterbury numbers in detail here.

    In rapid markets, it’s paramount to have an expert advisor at your side as you make decisions whether that is when to list or how to structure your offer to be the most competitive. Having access to resources unique to this profession, knowledge, and expertise; agents are equipped to provide their clients with up to the minute market data information, and new listing alerts from MLS, helping clients to make informed decisions in an effort to achieve the best outcome. All this along with leading technologies render support and advice that is critical for Sellers and Buyers to have as well.

    As our office analyzes the start of 2022 and the direction for the rest of the year, we remain very positive about our area. There are new factors that we will closely monitor, such as rising rates, but as we know real estate is locally focused.  We work hard to identify our own trends and opportunities to best fulfill our clients' goals

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